That Time I Predicted Jan. 6

I wrote this paper last October for a class on social media and politics. After that whole situation where people planned to kidnap governors, I noted the trends which led to the far-right militia movement and, eventually, to the storming of the Capitol building a few months later. Just thought it was funny

Rallying the Troops: The Rise of Far-Right Militia Groups in the Internet Age

On Thursday, October 8, the FBI announced the details of a plot by a right-wing militia group to kidnap Michigan’s governor, Gretchen Whitmer. Thirteen men were charged with crimes related to the plot, six of whom are potentially facing life in prison for federal charges. Like the protagonists of a Hollywood action movie, the Wolverine Watchmen (as they called themselves) spent the past several months devising a bold plan to rebel against a “tyrannical” government, learning to build explosives and conducting weapons training in preparation for violent encounters with law enforcement. They were a motley crew of disaffected rightists, many of whom have lived lives of economic hardship and see the modern world as overwhelmingly hostile and alienating to people like themselves. One could almost imagine an “Ocean’s Eleven”-esque film about this group of anti-heroes planning to do the impossible – except that instead of robbing a casino, they wanted to take a governor hostage. It would be funny if the implications weren’t so serious.

This news event is much more than just a handful of crack-pots looking to disrupt a system they were angry at. The ideologies that motivated these men can be traced far back into the history of American politics, and the ways that they organized their plans, as well as their reasons for doing so, can be explained by a variety of developments and current events going on today. The Wolverine Watchmen, like many other American “militia” and far-right groups, believe strongly in the ideals of the American Revolution and rely heavily on its rhetoric. Operating with a dogmatic belief in the U.S. Constitution, especially the Bill of Rights, groups such as these often decry government actions they see as “tyrannical” or “unconstitutional;” many view themselves as the last line of defense for the “American way of life.” Although the American militia movement is a somewhat new phenomenon, it espouses a strain of anti-government sentiment that finds its roots in the Reaganism of the 1980s and, even further back, is descended from the laissez-faire liberalism that has been a part of American political economy from its inception. Likewise, these militia groups have inherited the militaristic and often violent tendencies of many earlier American far-right groups, as well as the affinity for guns that is typical of many conservative Americans. Violent, politically charged outbursts from the far-right are not unheard of in American history. For example, in the 1930’s, a group of fascists were inspired by parallel movements in Mussolini’s Italy and Hitler’s Germany and planned to storm Washington, D.C. with the aim of overthrowing FDR in retaliation to his New Deal policies (Marshall). In 1995, far-right terrorists, suspicious of the Federal Government, bombed a Federal building, killing 168 people and injuring hundreds (Jenkins). The anti-government and militaristic traditions of the American far-right have laid a solid foundation for modern militia groups; it should be unsurprising, then, that members of these groups frequently express themselves with historical American Revolution imagery such as the Gadsden Flag, and that they often make a point of appearing in public armed to the teeth in military gear.

However, it would be fallacious to think of groups like the Oath Keepers, the Proud Boys, or the Wolverine Watchmen simply as continuations of past trends or inevitable results of decades-old developments. As much as these militia and far-right groups can be traced back to old trends, they are also results of completely novel circumstances. As the popularity of social media exploded over the past decade, many fringe conservative groups found new audiences and new tactics on social networks and online message boards. This, along with the political factors that led to the meteoric rise of Donald Trump as a political juggernaut – deindustrialization, wage stagnation, and the political establishment’s inability to address many voters’ needs, to name a few – allowed the American far-right to consolidate their influence.

The popularity of Donald Trump’s campaign in the lead-up to the 2016 Presidential Election was defined by a public dissatisfaction with public institutions and a distrust of mainstream corporate media. Many Americans, especially white working-class ones living in the abandoned industrial hotspots of the Midwest, were frustrated with what they saw as an inept and apathetic ruling class in D.C. They were suffering from the exportation of jobs overseas, a weak job market, and stagnant wages, but very little was being done to solve these problems. Politicians on both sides of the aisle ardently supported the policies at the roots of these problems, and it seemed that the solution was an outside man who would “drain the swamp.” Trump entered the Republican primary and quickly demolished his opponents on issues from the Iraq War to NAFTA to Social Security, clearly distinguishing himself as a strong alternative to the Republican establishment. Most important, though, was the way that Trump was able to create a story that resonated with people and gave them a clear sight of a new, brighter future (Ferguson, et al). He addressed the economic problems that had been ailing millions of Americans and found people to blame them on. Immigrants and Muslims were primary targets of Trump’s vitriol, which appealed to some Americans’ distrust of foreigners and residual fears of Islamic terrorism, but other groups, such as Wall Street bankers, crooked politicians, China and the mainstream media faced Trump’s wrath as well. Trump’s promise was irresistible; contrary to what some claim, his appeal to voters was more than a basic appeal to racism and xenophobia – in fact, one of the deciding factors in his victory was Obama voters who flipped parties in 2016 (Roarty). Trump won because he symbolized change in a stagnant political landscape.

Clearly, not all Trump supporters have become militia members in the aftermath of the 2016 election. However, it is no coincidence that a vast majority of militias are right-leaning and consistently hold Trump-adjacent beliefs. Nor is it coincidental that these groups frequently intersect with internet-based conspiracy theorists. Parallel to Trump’s ascendancy to the presidency was the growth of right-wing circles in social media. As conservatives eschewed mainstream media, often with the exception of Fox News (Jurkowitz, et al), platforms like Facebook became breeding grounds for right-wing networking. Conspiracy theories and polarizing content ran rampant online and, because these kinds of posts drew high levels of engagement and due to the nature of these sites’ predictive algorithms, they were frequently recommended to users based on their past activity (Van Prooijen, et al). This had the effect of pushing conservatives into virtual echo chambers while creating potent environments for groupthink. Trump, as president, has honed his technique of navigating the bizarre world of the political internet. He frequently posts controversial and problematic tweets in order to stir up controversy and invigorate his base. Many figures on the center-left frantically attempt to counteract and fact-check Trump’s grossly misleading and often false claims, but many conservatives have come to mistrust most journalists and media outlets; usually no amount of fact-checking is capable of changing their minds (Ingram).

By the start of 2020, the online systems of right-wing networking were operating as a well-oiled machine. Entire news outlets had become dedicated to the propagation of conspiracy theories (such as InfoWars) and automatic repetition of Trump’s claims (Fox News, for example), to the effect that an entirely separate media ecosystem had arisen in the place of mainstream news. It was at this moment in history that Coronavirus entered the picture and took the nascent right-wing media machine to even greater heights. Trump, caught off-guard by his administration’s lack of preparedness to deal with the Coronavirus crisis, was in search of a scapegoat. He quickly settled on China, constantly referring to the disease as the “China Virus” or the “Kung-Flu,” but at the same time he was manipulating the way his base viewed the crisis. Rather than address the virus head-on as a problem to be solved with concerted efforts at social unity and cooperation, Trump downplayed the virus, claiming that the risk it posed was “very, very low,” and that “[the virus is] going to disappear.” The result of this was, by and large, the creation of a potent political wedge issue on which to further divide Americans. For nearly the entire course of the pandemic, TV networks interviewed politicians more frequently than scientists (Hart, et al); given that conservatives rely almost exclusively on Fox News, which consistently falls in line with Trump’s claims (Jurkowitz, et al), it would make sense that the online far-right, largely informed by Fox News’ perspective, would adopt its most extreme interpretations of current events. This, coupled with the American far-right’s long standing affinity for conspiracy-minded thinking (Van der Linden, et al), led to huge swathes of the American population being skeptical of lockdown measures, even mask-wearing requirements, as government power-grabs and schemes by wily “big-government Democrats” to steal the November election from Trump by derailing the economy.

Since the early days of lockdown, the online far-right was whipping itself into a frenzy over strict isolation measures. Many conservatives who frequented far-right media environments also faced new economic problems as lockdown measures set in; many were put out of work or were in fear of being laid off, and this inspired many to become more involved in politics than they had been in the past. The Wolverine Watchmen were founded entirely in response to Governor Whitmer’s strict lockdown measures, and some of their members were among the earliest protesters in Michigan – these protests were clearly partisan, as Whitmer was one of the much-loathed big-government Democrats, and were spurred on by none other than the President himself. In April, as anti-lockdown protests were gaining traction around the country, especially in Democrat-run states with pockets of ardent conservatism like Michigan and Virginia, Trump tweeted, with his typical all-caps style, “LIBERATE MICHIGAN!” and “LIBERATE VIRGINIA!” The rights of Americans were, as Trump claimed , “under siege” by the lockdown measures which restricted their personal freedoms (Mauger), and to a certain extent these claims contained grains of truth. Americans were suffering as a result of lockdown, and Michigan’s lockdown policy, put in place by Governor Whitmer in the form of an executive order, was one of the strictest in the country (Sosa). As a result, many groups like the Watchmen started looking for ways to fight the system that they felt was making their lives difficult through unnecessary – and more crucially, unconstitutional – measures. An extremely polarizing summer, punctuated by spurts of violence and frequent anti-racism protests and overshadowed by tremendous political and economic uncertainty, has led groups like these to grow bolder. Egged on by Trump’s inflammatory rhetoric, it makes sense that the governor of Michigan would be targeted by a renegade group like the Watchmen.

Over the course of Trump’s presidency, Trump’s initial appeal – that he would radically change things for the better in D.C. – has disappeared and been replaced with an increasingly schizophrenic outlook on politics where invisible enemies, from pathogens to Chinese spies to the Deep State, abound. Many, including the Department of Homeland Security, deem groups like the Oath Keepers or Wolverine Watchmen to be the “the most significant terror-related threat” facing the United States (Swan). However, it remains crucial that political analysts, pundits, and ordinary citizens alike remain cognizant of social and historical factors, old and new, that contributed to the rise of Trump and his loyal following; these people are still Americans, albeit ones who take patriotism to an extreme. These people face the same problems many of their compatriots struggle with, and though their views may be misguided or extreme, they are little more than desperate Americans who took hold of Trump’s story and never let go.

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